The book titled “Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results” by Shane Parrish has been on my reading list since its release last year. I have been a huge fan and follower of Shane Parrish’s writings on fs.blog through the last so many years. His work has been inspirational, original in critique and thinking and easily comprehensible. If anything I owe my interest in decision theory in parts to Mr Parrish’s work
This is one book which can be quite dense to read and grasp if you aren’t already familiar with many concepts around decision making and human biases. Nonetheless, it’s also one book which you may want to reread many times over till you internalize key concepts. Some crucial concepts are described as a matter of fact throughout this book (to be fair, an understated narration is indeed one of the charms this book possesses) and can be missed if you aren’t careful while reading. This book as the author describes succinctly is “a practical guide to mastering clear thinking”
Following are the key takeaways for me from this book
1. The basic premise of this book is that in order to get the results we desire, we must do two things a. We must first create the space to reason in our thoughts, feelings, and actions; and b. we must deliberately use that space to think clearly. Once you have mastered this skill, you will have an unstoppable advantage
2. What happens in ordinary moments determines the future. Each moment puts one in a better or worse position to handle the future. It’s that positioning that eventually makes life easier or harder. And clear thinking is key to proper positioning which in turn decides the options available
3. You don’t need to be smarter than others to outperform them if you can out-position them. Unsurprisingly, the greatest aid to judgment is starting from a good position
4. Rationality is wasted when you don’t know when to use it. People who master their defaults get the best real-world results
5. There are four defaults or natural instincts that humans possess which are barriers to clear thinking
- The emotion default: we tend to respond to feelings rather than reasons and facts. Emotions can multiply all your progress by zero
- Biological vulnerabilities that leave us even more exposed to the emotion default’s influence: sleep deprivation, hunger, fatigue, emotion, distraction, stress from feeling rushed, and being in an unfamiliar environment. If you find yourself in any of these conditions, be on your guard!
- The ego default: we tend to react to anything that threatens our sense of self-worth or our position in a group hierarchy
- If you find yourself expending tremendous energy on how you are seen, if you often feel your pride being wounded, your ego is in charge
- The social default: we tend to conform to the norms of our larger social group
- If you’re frequently fearful of disappointing other people, if you’re afraid of being an outsider, or if the threat of scorn fills you with dread, then social default may be in charge
- To protect yourself from the influence of the social default, you decide to implement a safeguard. You form a rule for yourself: never say yes to something important without thinking it over for a day
- The inertia default: we’re habit forming and comfort seeking. We tend to resist change, and to prefer ideas, processes, and environments that are familiar
- The longer we avoid the conflict, however, the more necessary it becomes to continue avoiding it
- Establishing rituals is the key to creating positive inertia
6. The person who can take a step back for a second, center themselves, and get out of the moment will outperform the person who can’t. The following are the 4 key strengths needed to master this
- Self-accountability: holding yourself accountable for developing your abilities, managing your inabilities, and using reason to govern your actions
- No one cares about your excuses at all, except you
- When you put outcome over ego, you get better results
- One of the most common mistakes people make is bargaining with how the world should work instead of accepting how it does work
- Self-knowledge: knowing your own strengths and weaknesses—what you’re capable of doing and what you’re not
- Understanding what you do and don’t know is the key to playing games you can win
- Self-control: mastering your fears, desires, and emotions
- A large part of achieving success is having the self-control to do whatever needs to be done, regardless of whether you feel like doing it at the moment
- Self-confidence: trusting in your abilities and your value to others
- Self-confidence is the strength to focus on what’s right instead of who’s right. Confidence also comes from how you talk to yourself
- In order to be right, you must be willing to change your mind. If you’re not willing to change your mind, you’re going to be wrong a lot
7. Few things are more important in life than avoiding the wrong people
8. The best leaders expect more from people; they hold them to the same standards they hold themselves
- If a team member is producing substandard work and you know they can do better, ask them “is this your best work” before you provide any feedback on their artifacts
9. Choosing the right exemplars or a “personal board of directors’ ‘ helps create a repository of “good behavior”. Ultimately one has to follow their examples in a given situation
10. The formula for failure is a few small errors consistently repeated
11. Safeguards are tools for protecting ourselves from ourselves—from weaknesses that we don’t have the strength to overcome. A few tactics to create safeguards are: prevention, creating rules for yourself, making checklists, shifting your frame of reference, and making the invisible visible
12. The path to breaking bad habits is making your desired behavior the default behavior
13. If you got some results you didn’t want, the world is telling you at least one of two things: a. you were unlucky and b. your ideas about how things work were wrong
14. Defining the problem is a critical task. And only the person who is responsible for the outcome should define the problem
15. The best decision-makers know that the way we define a problem shapes everyone’s perspective about it and determines the solutions
- During the problem definition phase, build a problem-solution firewall. Separate the problem-defining phase of the decision-making process from the problem-solving phase
- During the problem solving phase, test whether you’re addressing the root cause of a problem, rather than merely treating a symptom, by asking yourself whether it will stand the test of time. Will this solution fix the problem permanently
- The 3+ principle: Force yourself to explore at least three possible solutions to a problem. If you find yourself considering only two options, force yourself to find at least one more
16. Many people think they’re bad problem solvers when in fact they’re bad problem anticipators
- People who think about what’s likely to go wrong and determine the actions they can take are more likely to succeed when things don’t go according to plan
17. The opportunity-cost principle: Consider what opportunities you’re forgoing when you choose one option over another
- The 3-lens principle: View opportunity costs through these three lenses: a. Compared with what? b. And then what? c. At the expense of what?
18. Most information is irrelevant. Get high-fidelity (HiFi) information—information that’s closest to the source and unfiltered by other people’s biases and interests
- The person closest to the problem often has the most accurate information about it. What they tend to lack is a broader perspective
- Evaluate the motivations and incentives of your sources. Remember that everyone sees things from a limited perspective
- When you get information from other people, ask questions that yield detailed answers. Don’t ask people what they think; instead, ask them how they think
- When someone close to the problem isn’t available to you, look for people who recently solved a similar problem
19. What questions to ask experts when looking for their opinion on a problem?
- The goal isn’t to have someone tell you what to do; rather, it’s to learn how an expert thinks about the problem, which variables they consider relevant, and how those variables interact over time
20. How to differentiate an expert from an imitator in the age of influencers?!
- Imitators cannot answer questions at a deeper level. For examples, if you ask them about non-standard cases or first principles, their answer may not be good
- Imitators cannot adapt their vocabulary to make concepts clearer to their audience. They typically tend to use jargons
- Imitators get frustrated when you say you don’t understand something. That frustration is a result of being overly concerned with the appearance of expertise
- Imitators don’t know the limits of their expertise. Experts on the other hand can tell you all the ways they have failed in solving a problem
21. The ALAP principle: If the cost to undo a decision is high, make it as late as possible. Consequentiality and reversibility concepts. One should also remember to factor the cost of analysis into decisions. The core idea behind ALAP principle is to preserve optionality
22. The stop, flop, know principle: Stop gathering more information and execute your decision when either you Stop gathering useful information, you First Lose an OPportunity (FLOP), or you come to Know something that makes it evident what option you should choose
23. There’s always a moment when you simply know at a core level exactly what to do. Knowing what to do isn’t enough – you have to take action
24. When failure is expensive, it’s worth investing in large margins of safety i.e. a buffer between what you expect to happen and what could happen
- When you don’t know what you are doing, a margin of safety saves you from the worst outcomes
- The margin of safety is often sufficient when it can absorb double the worst-case scenario
- You need a margin of safety most at the very moment you start to think you don’t
25. For big decisions, keeping it to yourself before executing allows you to keep open the possibility of undoing it
26. Performing small, low-risk experiments on multiple options—in other words, shooting bullets and calibrating—keeps your options open before you commit the bulk of your resources to shooting a cannonball is a sound strategy for embarking on life changing decisions e.g. quitting your job to start a side hustle
27. Execution fail-safes leverage your thinking when you’re at your best to protect you against the defaults when you’re at your worst. There are 3 kinds
- Set up trip wires to determine in advance what you’ll do when you hit a specific quantifiable time, amount, or circumstance. This can include both negative signs as well as absence of a positive sign
- Use commander’s intent to empower others to act and make decisions without you
- Tie your hands to keep your execution on track
28. When you evaluate a decision, focus on the process you used to make the decision and not the outcome
- Good decisions can have bad outcomes, and bad decisions can have good ones. However, a bad process can never produce a good decision. Of course, outcome can be good
- Make your decision-making process as visible and open to scrutiny as possible
- Keep a record of your thoughts at the time you make the decision. Don’t rely on your memory after the fact
29. The worst regret is when we fail to live a life true to ourselves, when we fail to play by our own scoreboard
- We regret the things we didn’t do more than the things we did
- Was I there when the people I love needed me?
30. Start thinking about the shortness of life, and it will help you see what really matters
- Say things now to people you care about—whether it’s expressing gratitude, asking forgiveness, or getting information
- Spend the maximum amount of time with your children
- Savor daily pleasures instead of waiting for “big-ticket items” to make you happy
- Work in a job you love
- Key to a successful life is good company and meaningful relationships
31. The key to getting what you want out of life is to identify how the world works and to align yourself with it
- If you want to develop good judgment, start by asking two questions: “What do I want in life? And is what I want actually worth wanting?
- Improving your judgment is about designing systems when you’re at your best that work for you when you’re at your worst
- Good judgment can’t be taught, but it can be learned
Decades worth of wisdom packed into a couple hundred pages, you cannot go wrong with this book. Pls read it and then re-read it! The book can be ordered from Amazon here!